¿Cómo sabemos si los candidatos están haciendo promesas que no pueden cumplir? (English below)

Una crítica principal contra Trump es que se aprovechó de la gente pobre al hacer promesas que no tiene posibilidad  de cumplir a cambio de sus votos.Votantes, especialmente de comunidades minorarías, necesitan saber si los candidatos demócratas están haciendo lo mismo. ¿Qué criterios se pueden usar para saber la diferencia? El Senado está diseñado para indicar si hay una mayoría de estados que están listos para aprobar una reforma federal. Por ejemplo, actualmente hay 14 senadores que han apoyado la propuesta del senador Sanders para el Pagador Único.Compare eso con 51 senadores que apoyaron la propuesta de Obama en 2010 de una opción pública.

Bernie, Encuestas, y Alto A Deportaciones (English translation below)

Hay une gran peligro al la reforma migratoria. Las encuestas nos demuestran que el 66% de personas están opuestos a despenalizar migración sin permiso (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. July 15-17, 2019. N=1,346 adultos). Eso indica que la propuesta por Bernie Sanders de poner alto al 99% de deportaciones hará mucho daño a la probabilidad que el le gane a Trump. Hay poca probabilidad que le importe al votante independiente que Bernie diga que el alto es temporario. Además de el peligro a la candidatura de el, hay también une peligro que Demócratas en elecciones difíciles para el congreso pierdan. 

La política anti-migrante de Trump ha sido apoyada por Republicanos en el Senado. Para pasar la reforma hay que derrumbar el control de ese partido sobre el senado. Se tiene que hacer con una victoria tan grande que provee suficiente fuerza política para efectuar cambio de ley grande. Para eso hay que ganar en estados adonde el porcentaje de votantes opuestos a la despenalizar la migración sin permiso es mucho mas alto porque son estados con política mas conservador. Estados como Alabama, Colorado, Arizona, Carolina del Norte, Maine, Montana, Indiana, Texas, Georgia, y Kansas. Nacionalmente hay 64% apoyo en la misma encuesta por reforma migratoria. Eso demuestra la diferencia entre propuestas que son inviable, y lo que esta dentro de nuestra alcance. Pero aveces es difícil apreciar esto sin comparación a una experiencia personal.

Suponiendo que una joven le interesa ser el jefe de una gran empresa. Ella nota qué hay una posición disponible allí dentro de su alcance, si tiene una buena entrevista. Pero tiene une amigo que le dice qué hay que tener valor y utilizar su entrevista para declarar que ella quiere ser la jefa de la empresa. El amigo le dice que ella no puede esperar, que sus condiciones están muy pobre, y lo que ella necesita une cambio radical y una perspectiva revolucionaria. Ella también tiene otro amigo dentro de la organización quien ha echo una encuesta entre los gerentes que deciden estas cosas. Hay une 64% apoyo por que ella tome la posición disponible pero menos de 34% crean que ella debe ser jefe ahora. Cual amigo le esta proveyendo mejor consejo y información?

En el 2013 se necesito 55 senadores Demócratas por la reforma migratoria para pasar esa cámara de el congreso. En ese tiempo John McCain y Obama nos estaban ayudando. Ahora hay únicamente 47 Demócratas en el senado. Tenemos que decidir ahora entre enfocar en lo que suena radical y lo que es posible.

Bernie, Polling, and Halting Deportations

There is a great danger to immigration reform. Surveys show us that 66% of people are opposed to decriminalizing migration without permission (NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist Poll. July 15-17, 2019. N = 1,346 adults). This indicates that Bernie Sanders' proposal to stop 99% of deportations will do much harm to the likelihood that he will beat Trump. There is little chance that the independent voter will care that Bernie says the halt is temporary. In addition to the danger to his candidacy, there is also a danger that Democrats in difficult elections for Congress will lose.

Trump's anti-migrant policy has been supported by Republicans in the Senate. To pass the reform, the control of that party over the Senate must be ended. It has to be done with a victory so great that it provides enough political strength to effect a great reform. For that we must win in states where the percentage of voters opposed to decriminalizing migration without permission is much higher because they are states with more conservative politics: Alabama, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Indiana, Texas, Georgia, and Kansas. Nationally there is 64% support in the same poll for immigration reform. That demonstrates the difference between proposals that are unviable, and what is within our reach. But sometimes it is difficult to appreciate this without comparison to a personal experience.

Let's imagine a young woman is interested in being the head of a large company. She notices that there is a position available she is qualified for, if she has a good interview. But she has a friend who tells her to have courage and use her interview to declare that she wants to be the head of the company. The friend tells her that she cannot wait and that her conditions are very poor. What she needs is a radical change and a revolutionary perspective. She also has another friend within the organization who has done a survey among the managers who decide these things. There is 64% support for her to take the available position, but less than 34% believe she should be the CEO. Which friend is providing her with better advice and information?

In 2013, 55 Senate Democrats were needed for immigration reform to pass that chamber of Congress. At that time John McCain and Obama were helping us. Now there are only 47 Democrats in the Senate. We have to decide now between focusing on what sounds radical and what is possible.

Justicia Now is primarily focused on advancing a pathway to equal rights for 11 million undocumented workers. This requires majority power coalition building so that popular support for immigration reform translates into legislation in this Congress or the election of a pro-reform Congress. To serve this mission we organize grassroots, legislative, and electoral engagement.

Challenge

At several 2011 conferences of Latino leaders in Florida, when asked which Representatives in their state were cosponsors of the leading comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) bill, civic leaders did not know. This unfortunately means that they were not a part of recruiting cosponsors for reform. Without district organizing, and the threat of upsetting constituents, reform efforts are left with the usual Washington lobbying tactics that don't develop true local grassroots power or organizers.

2014, Latinos Winning or Losing? (en Español debajo)

The Good

These elections helped us discover and understand the priorities of Latino voters. We now know that Immigration Reform polled at 45% as the primary concern for Latinos, followed by the Economy at 34%, Education at 21%, and Health Care at 17%.

78% of Latinos voted to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 when given the chance to do so by ballot measure. We also witnessed a high support for progressive issues, like California Proposition 1, which authorizes $7.5 billion to improve the quality of the water system.

How many candidates for Congress have publicly committed to support a pathway to citizenship who are also polling to win the next election? 

     Introduction 

We've never been so close to passing comprehensive immigration reform in both chambers of Congress than we are now. We have almost doubled the number of cosponsors we had in 2010, when that last bill only received 104 cosponsorships. Many groups seem to be losing their focus and energy on reform and wondering what we should do now. The most effective way of improving your life is to reflect on how you can improve yourself. As a movement the best way to improve our efficacy is self-assessment.